A “Now Hiring” sign prominently displayed at an AutoZone in Hollywood, Florida, captures the evolving labor market landscape as we navigate into 2026. In the wake of the pandemic, workers experienced unprecedented mobility and opportunities-often referred to as the “Great Resignation”—saw a record 4.5 million individuals leave their jobs in March 2022 in search of better roles. However, this trend is shifting, as recent data reveals a substantial decline in workforce mobility.
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the rate of voluntary departures, known as “quits,” has dropped by nearly one-third since its peak in early 2022. Additionally, job openings have decreased by almost half during the same period. This changing dynamic is underscored by a narrowing gap in pay increases; the difference in annual raises for employees staying with their companies versus those who switch has contracted from 8.4 percentage points in April 2022 to just 1.9 percentage points by January 2023. This marks the lowest disparity recorded since payroll processing firm ADP began tracking such data in November 2020.
Economists are now coining this trend as the “big stay,” reflecting shifts in a labor market characterized by low hiring and low firing. Nela Richardson, chief economist at ADP, notes that the current environment is marked by stability, with minimal movement in both hiring and layoffs. The past tumult of the pandemic has given way to a more balanced labor landscape, even as companies continue to navigate the hybrid work model established post-COVID.
During the height of the Great Resignation, there were more than two job openings available for every unemployed worker. Yet, the pendulum has swung back, leading to a scenario where available workers now outnumber job openings. Despite this adjustment, layoffs remain historically low, with only 206,000 initial jobless claims recorded last week, aligning closely with a long-term average of 219,000 claims that reflects a healthy labor market. Coupled with a steady unemployment rate of 4.3%, these indicators signal a complex but stable job environment.
Wage trends remain uneven across industries. In the high-turnover sectors like leisure and hospitality, workers who stay in their roles see better pay increases, with a reported advantage of 2.5% over those who switch jobs. Conversely, in construction-affected significantly by labor shortages due to immigration policies-employees who change jobs enjoy a notable advantage of 6.6 percentage points.
While switching jobs is still incentivized, with annual pay growth hitting an average of 6.4% for job changers compared to 4.5% for those who remain, the gap is narrowing. As the labor market adjusts, more workers are actively searching for new opportunities; job searches surged by 31% in January compared to December, even as the number of job postings remained relatively stable.
Industry experts from Indeed Hiring Lab warn that those seeking employment in 2026 face a reality of reduced job openings per unemployed person and prolonged hiring timelines. They emphasize that the stagnant labor environment, characterized by low hiring and firings, may hinder economic dynamism, which is essential for productivity and growth. Richardson highlighted the risk of a lack of movement in the labor force, stressing the importance of positioning talent where it can be best utilized.
As we move forward, the evolving labor market will continue to influence the dynamics of employment, pay, and job satisfaction, shaping opportunities for both workers and employers alike.
Original Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/19/life-after-the-great-resignation-incentives-are-dimming-for-workers-to-change-jobs.html
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Publish Date: 2026-02-20 03:20:00
