Anti-India sentiments in Bangladesh are poised to escalate as the nation approaches its elections in February. Intelligence agencies have intercepted communications indicating a rise in planned violence in the lead-up to the vote, suggesting organized efforts rather than random acts of aggression. The Jamaat-e-Islami, a group influenced by the Pakistani ISI, is reportedly promoting this anti-India narrative as a tactical move to consolidate its voter base.
New Delhi is closely monitoring these developments and plans to engage diplomatically after the elections. Currently, India perceives Bangladesh as unstable and potentially dangerous. An official from the Indian Intelligence Bureau acknowledged that the possibility of violence is high, especially if the Jamaat feels threatened in the polls, which could lead to intensified conflict. The ISI appears to favor a Jamaat-led government for greater control over the situation.
If the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) gains momentum, the Jamaat may resort to mobilizing its supporters to disrupt the electoral process. Anticipating the potential for anti-India protests and violence, Indian authorities have opted to withdraw families and dependents of officials stationed in Bangladesh, citing security concerns.
Recent violent protests in Bangladesh have culminated in attacks on Indian diplomatic missions. The Jamaat is reportedly spreading the narrative that India is culpable in the death of student leader Osman Hadi and is interfering in Bangladesh’s electoral affairs, particularly following its support for former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. Such rhetoric is expected to intensify closer to the election date, aiming to incite violence and instability.
India faces a complex security landscape ahead. Assam’s Chief Minister, Himanta Biswa Sarma, revealed at the World Economic Forum in Davos that intelligence agencies have identified key figures from the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and other militant groups operating from Bangladesh. These elements have been strategically positioned as part of a larger pattern that could see increased infiltration into northeastern India, heightening the risk of terrorism.
The ISI is reportedly orchestrating a multifaceted strategy against India coinciding with the upcoming elections, amplifying anti-India sentiments and targeting minority communities. Concurrently, there are efforts to enhance infiltration into Indian territory, focusing on the northeastern states and West Bengal.
Experts suggest that the current period is highly precarious, especially if the Jamaat comes to power, potentially complicating relations further. The geopolitical landscape is further complicated by the interests of China and Pakistan, both of which seem to favor a government aligned with Jamaat. Speculation indicates that China might be advocating for Muhammad Yunus to assume the presidency following the elections, due to his history of concessions while leading the interim government.
Officials suggest that a pact is already in place whereby Yunus would step into the presidential role should the Jamaat secure a victory.
Original Source: https://www.morungexpress.com/intel-warns-of-orchestrated-anti-india-violence-in-bangladesh-as-polls-near
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Publish Date: 2026-01-23 14:55:00
