In early April, Iran miscalculated by launching 300 missiles and drones at Israel, which were mostly intercepted or failed. Seeking to restore deterrence after a deadly Israeli strike on an Iranian consulate in Damascus, Iran’s response aimed to demonstrate strength without causing casualties that might provoke overwhelming retaliation. However, the attack instead showed Iran’s inability or unwillingness to strike back effectively. A subsequent Israeli precision strike on an Iranian air defense site emphasized Israel’s superior capabilities.
Following this, Israel systematically targeted Hezbollah and other key Iranian allies, eliminating several high-ranking officials, including Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s charismatic leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Iran’s subsequent attack on Tuesday, with over 200 ballistic missiles, aimed to appear more formidable but failed to inflict significant damage or casualties. This suggests Iran did not achieve its intended deterrence, revealing possible misjudgment by Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Israel’s official channels highlighted that the missiles targeted civilians, stressing the gravity of Iran’s actions. Former Israeli intelligence official Avi Melamed suggested that Israel would now likely launch a more massive retaliation.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has framed this moment as an opportunity for Israel to reshape the Middle East by confronting Iran. Although such approaches are appealing, historical precedents like the 2003 US invasion of Iraq suggest caution is needed. The next moves could significantly shape Middle Eastern geopolitics, with decisions resting heavily with Netanyahu, amid mixed support from international hawks and skepticism from experts.
Original Story https://www.livemint.com/news/irans-missile-strike-was-yet-another-strategic-blunder-11727822207597.html
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