Alarming October Deluge: T.N. Faces Excess Rainfall for Second Year in a Row as IMD Predicts Below Normal November

Chennai’s Nungambakkam weather station has reported an impressive 32.4 cm of rainfall this October, marking the second highest for the decade. This year, Tamil Nadu has experienced significant rainfall, with a total of 23.3 cm, exceeding the average of 17.1 cm by 36%. October’s weather patterns have followed an active northeast monsoon, which has contributed to above-normal precipitation across the state for the second consecutive year.

The month saw daily rainfall in many districts, with heavy downpours particularly impacting regions such as Ranipet, Tirunelveli, and Vellore, which experienced notably excess precipitation. This trend mirrors last year’s figures, where Tamil Nadu recorded 21.4 cm of rainfall, 25% above the average for October. For Chennai, this marks a continuation of surplus rainfall for the second year running.

According to B. Amudha, Head (Additional in-charge) at the Regional Meteorological Centre, the northeast monsoon has consistently performed well over the past five years, delivering either normal or excess rainfall to the state. “This October, the State received rainfall almost daily, except for the last few days,” she noted, attributing this to an active monsoon phase.

Looking ahead, Amudha indicated that the first few days of November are expected to remain dry, but forecasts suggest that rainfall will resume around November 5. As models continue to evolve, further clarity on precipitation patterns is anticipated shortly. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has cautioned that overall rainfall in November could be below normal for most districts, with temperatures expected to rise above average, particularly in areas away from the western ghats.

In a long-range forecast based on the South Indian Ocean Convergence Zone model, insights from former IMD meteorologists, including Onkari Prasad, suggest a possibility of normal rainfall in November. Districts such as Kallakurichi, Erode, and Tiruvarur may still see surplus rainfall despite the general outlook.

Y.E.A. Raj, a former Deputy Director General of Meteorology, highlighted that the excess rainfall in October was bolstered by the early onset of the northeast monsoon and unusually robust southwest monsoon activity during the first part of the month. Additionally, a persistent weather system in the Arabian Sea for over ten days further amplified the rainfall across Tamil Nadu.

With nearly half of the northeast monsoon’s expected quota already recorded in October, the weather patterns may lead to a more balanced distribution of rainfall as the season progresses. As citizens and officials alike prepare for the impacts of changing weather patterns, staying informed will be crucial for managing the aftermath of this active monsoon period.

Published: November 01, 2025, 05:45 AM IST.

Original Source: https://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/chennai/october-ends-with-excess-rainfall-over-tn-for-second-consecutive-year-imd-indicates-below-normal-rains-in-november/article70226037.ece
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Publish Date: 2025-11-01 05:45:00