The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has announced that the southwest monsoon is expected to reach Kerala within the next four to five days, ahead of the typical onset date of June 1. Previously, the IMD had forecasted the monsoon to arrive by May 27, allowing for a margin of error of plus or minus four days. This early arrival is poised to bring significant relief from the ongoing heatwave and is likely to enhance the sowing prospects for key crops, including rice, maize, cotton, soybean, and other oilseeds.
A senior official from IMD remarked, “If it advances at the current pace and conditions remain conducive, we anticipate favorable conditions for monsoon onset in Kerala within the next 4-5 days.” Last year, the monsoon reached Kerala on May 30, while in preceding years, the arrival dates varied, with June 8 in 2022, June 3 in 2021, and June 1 in 2020.
The southwest monsoon is crucial for India’s agriculture, contributing to nearly 70% of annual rainfall and supporting approximately 51% of the nation’s net cultivated area. Early and above-normal rainfall forecasts are expected to benefit kharif sowing, enhance reservoir levels, and bolster the rabi season. Crops such as soybean, tomatoes, and onions are likely to see increased acreage, creating a positive outlook for the agricultural sector.
Sanjeev Asthana, president of The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA), stated, “Earlier projections indicate above-normal rainfall (109% of the long period average or LPA) for the current season. A timely and adequate monsoon will provide a much-needed boost to India’s agricultural economy.”
As of May 13, the monsoon had already advanced into parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the south Andaman Sea, the Nicobar Islands, and sections of the north Andaman Sea—two days ahead of schedule. The IMD anticipates favorable conditions for further progression of the monsoon over larger areas in the south Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin area, and parts of Lakshadweep, Kerala, Tamil Nadu, and northeastern India.
On April 15, the IMD had projected above-normal monsoon rainfall from June to September 2025, estimating seasonal rainfall over the country to exceed the long-term average of 104%. The forecast suggests rainfall could reach 105% of LPA, with an error margin of plus or minus 5%. This prediction has led the Centre to set an ambitious foodgrain production target of 354.64 million tonnes for 2025-26, marking a 3.8% increase from the previous year’s target. Higher production in staples like paddy, wheat, and maize could enable the government to ease export restrictions, benefiting farmers and traders alike.
In the immediate future, the IMD has forecast heavy to very heavy rainfall along the west coast, particularly affecting Karnataka, Konkan, Goa, Kerala, and surrounding peninsular regions from May 20 to 26. Extreme rainfall is predicted in north Kerala on May 20 and along coastal and ghat regions of Karnataka on May 20-21. Furthermore, heavy rainfall with thunderstorms is expected over northeast India and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim, while severe heatwave conditions are anticipated in Rajasthan during the same period.
Original Source: https://www.livemint.com/news/india/monsoon-2025-kerala-imd-weather-forecast-kharif-crop-india-agriculture-industry-india-monsoon-forecast-11747739128299.html
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Publish Date: 2025-05-20 17:24:00
