New York — A cluster of newly created accounts on prediction market Polymarket placed sharply timed “Yes” bets that the United States and Iran would reach a ceasefire on April 7, and the wagers produced six‑figure profits for some bettors, according to an analysis of public blockchain data. The trades were made hours before a two‑week ceasefire was announced and, in several cases, before President Donald Trump posted about the deal on Truth Social at around 6:30 p.m. ET on the same day.
Using the crypto analytics platform Dune to review Polymarket’s public ledger, researchers identified at least 50 wallets that placed substantial first‑time bets on the ceasefire contract before Trump’s post. One wallet created around 10 a.m. ET placed roughly $72,000 of “Yes” bets at an average price of 8.8 cents and later cashed out for an estimated $200,000 profit. Another account that joined on April 6 showed a $125,500 win. A third wallet, created 12 minutes before Trump’s post, placed $31,908 of “Yes” bets at 33.7 cents and is estimated to have earned $48,500.
Polymarket’s betting units range from $0 to $1, with prices expressed in cents representing the market’s estimate of probability-from 0% to 100%—that an event will occur. The higher price on some bets just before the announcement may reflect late diplomatic activity, including reported efforts by Pakistan to seek an extension of the president’s deadline, or traders betting that Trump would retract his earlier threats — a pattern critics have dubbed “Trump Always Chickens Out” (TACO).
Not all bettors have been paid. Polymarket has labeled the April 7 ceasefire contract “disputed,” citing ongoing Iranian restrictions on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and continued missile activity; resolving the dispute could take up to 48 hours, the platform says. Because trades occur on public blockchains, analysts can see wallet activity but cannot identify who controls those wallets. Polymarket uses proxy smart contract wallets, which allow a single user to create multiple addresses, and only the company holds internal records that could confirm whether accounts were truly new or linked to existing users.
Polymarket did not respond to a request for comment. The episode revived concerns in Congress and among market observers about possible insider trading in prediction markets. Rep. Blake Moore (R‑Utah), who has proposed regulation for these platforms, said it is “highly unlikely that these are good‑faith trades; it’s much more likely that these are insiders with access to information ahead of the public.” Similar clusters of well‑timed accounts have profited in past events, including bets placed before the January capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and other military actions involving Iran. Industry leaders including Kalshi and Polymarket have acknowledged the need to broaden insider‑trading definitions for prediction markets; Todd Philips, a Georgia State University professor who studies these markets, said, “This is why these markets need regulation. We can’t have people trading with inside information and expect other traders to be OK.”
Original Source: https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/white-house-leak-how-traders-made-big-profits-on-donald-trumps-ceasefire-post-us-iran-war-11331618#publisher=newsstand
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Publish Date: 2026-04-09 08:32:00
