Heavy to very heavy rainfall is expected over southwest Peninsular India and Northeast and adjoining East India for the next five days, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). Specifically, very heavy rainfall is predicted for Konkan & Goa and the Ghat regions of Madhya Maharashtra until Tuesday, Kerala, Coastal and South Interior Karnataka between Saturday and Tuesday, and Gujarat today and on Tuesday. Light to moderate rainfall will occur over Coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam, Telangana, Marathwada, and Rayalaseema, with isolated to scattered showers over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry, and Karaikal.
The monsoon trough lies north of its usual position, contributing to these weather patterns. Following an 11% deficit in June rainfall, the national deficit has reduced to 2% since the start of the monsoon season in June. The southwest monsoon, which began earlier than usual, regained strength, reaching northwest India on time by June 29 and covering the entire country six days ahead of schedule on July 8. This brought severe weather, including record-breaking single-day June rainfall in Delhi and heavy rainfall in Mumbai.
The IMD forecasts above-normal rainfall for July, potentially leading to floods in the western Himalayan states and central river basins. This is partly due to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) returning to neutral, with a likely transition to La Niña in the latter half of the monsoon season. La Niña is known for increasing rainfall and causing floods due to the cooling of sea surface temperatures.
A cyclonic circulation over East Bihar and Northeast Assam is expected to cause very heavy rainfall in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim, Bihar, and Arunachal Pradesh, with isolated extremely heavy rainfall in Meghalaya today, and additional rainfall in Nagaland, Odisha, and other regions in the coming days. Light to moderate rainfall, with thunderstorm and lightning, is forecasted for Uttarakhand, Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha, and Chhattisgarh, while scattered to widespread showers will affect Himachal Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, and East Rajasthan. Scattered rainfall will also occur over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, and West Rajasthan.
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