Vice President Kamala Harris has unexpectedly taken the lead over former President Donald Trump in Iowa, according to a new poll released by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom. This poll shows Harris with 47% support among likely voters, compared to Trump’s 44%, just days before the upcoming Election Day. This marks a significant shift, as Harris has gained a 7-point swing in voter support since September. Though her lead falls within the poll’s 3.4% margin of error, it caught political analysts off guard since Iowa has been a stronghold for Trump in previous elections, with neither candidate conducting recent campaigns in the state.
The survey, conducted by Selzer & Co., noted strong backing for Harris from female voters, especially older and independent ones, as key to her surge. “Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers,” said pollster J. Ann Selzer. In contrast, a separate Emerson College poll released the same day presented a different narrative, with Trump leading Harris 53% to 43%.
The Trump campaign quickly dismissed the Des Moines Register poll as an “outlier,” suggesting that the Emerson College poll more accurately represents Iowa’s electorate. Historically, Trump secured Iowa with an 8-point margin in 2020 and a 9-point margin in 2016, showing a departure from what is traditionally considered stable Trump territory.
This development prefaced by Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s withdrawal to support Trump and limited voter backing at 3% in Iowa, adds additional layers to the political dynamics in the state. As election day nears, all eyes remain on Iowa as an unexpected battleground between the contenders.
Original Story https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/02/harris-leading-trump-iowa-poll-presidential-election-.html
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