The Bareilly district president of the BJP’s Kisan Morcha, Shyamsudar Tripathi, resigned abruptly in January and sent his letter directly to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, calling the University Grants Commission’s (Promotion of Equity in Higher Education Institutions) Regulations, 2026 a “black law” that discriminates against upper castes. Tripathi’s charge ignited a political firestorm in Uttar Pradesh, where supporters of Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath saw the regulations as a move by the Modi–Amit Shah leadership to undercut Yogi by targeting his upper-caste base.
The UGC regulations were notified on January 13 but were stayed by the Supreme Court on January 29 after opponents challenged the definition of “caste-based discrimination” in clause 3(1)(c). The rule defined caste-based discrimination as any caste- or tribe-based action against members of Scheduled Castes, Scheduled Tribes and Other Backward Classes, effectively extending protections for SC, ST and OBC students from practices by Brahmins, Rajputs, Kayasths and Vaishyas. The court warned the provisions could have “very sweeping consequences” and “divide society.” On August 21, citing electoral and political calculations amid mounting pushback, the Centre told the Supreme Court it was “reconsidering” the regulations.
The episode exposed deeper electoral anxieties for the BJP. On August 3, the party suffered a shocking defeat in Patna’s Bankipore constituency-long a BJP stronghold-when the Jan Suraj Party’s Prashant Kishore beat the BJP candidate by about 20,000 votes, a loss blamed largely on upper-caste desertion. That upset underlines a core problem for the BJP: upper-caste votes alone are not enough. To stay in power, the party also needs the support of SCs, STs and OBCs, who outnumber upper castes in key battlegrounds such as Uttar Pradesh, due to hold assembly elections in 2027.
The decision to conduct a caste census alongside the 2027 national census has become a political minefield. SCs and STs have long been counted in every census; OBCs and upper castes have not. OBCs currently hold 27 percent reservations, despite their numbers never being verified by a census. Rahul Gandhi first demanded a caste census in 2023-calling for a clearer picture of OBC socio-economic status-only to be dismissed by Modi as an “urban Naxal.” In mid-2025, however, the government agreed to a caste enumeration with the 2027 census.
Opposition leaders, including Gandhi and Samajwadi Party’s Akhilesh Yadav, argue the proposed census method is insufficient and want enumerators to use official OBC lists-2,471 entries at the Centre and about 3,150 across states and union territories-so respondents can accurately identify their caste. The demand reflects fear that a validated OBC majority (some past estimates put OBCs near 50–52 percent) would intensify calls for a larger reservation share and trigger upper-caste backlash reminiscent of the Mandal-era turmoil.
Widespread anti-reservation protests in Uttar Pradesh and at Delhi’s Jantar Mantar have unnerved the BJP. To soothe competing constituencies, the party has both paused the UGC rules and made local leadership changes-appointing OBC leader Pankaj Chaudhary as Uttar Pradesh BJP president. With UP pivotal to national fortunes, the handling of the UGC rules, the caste census and caste-based politics will test the BJP’s ability to balance competing caste interests ahead of the 2027 assembly and 2029 Lok Sabha battles.
Original Source: https://theshillongtimes.com/2026/09/01/up-will-be-an-acid-test-for-modis-caste-mathematics/
Category: SPECIAL ARTICLE
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Publish Date: 2026-09-01 06:12:00
