Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said the government does not see an immediate need to revise its Budget estimates despite risks from higher global oil prices, renewed geopolitical tensions and an erratic monsoon, addressing the NDTV Profit Business Leadership Awards 2026 in Mumbai. She told the audience the Budget already includes cushions to absorb external and domestic shocks and that, for now, there is no plan to “readjust” fiscal numbers. “At this stage, I don’t think I look at my budget number for readjusting,” she said when asked whether tensions in West Asia and an uneven monsoon could alter the government’s fiscal calculations.
Sitharaman said specific provisions have been made to manage the impact of rising oil prices, higher fertiliser import costs and disruptions to global shipping. “We’ve made a provision, there’s some resource kept aside for it,” she said, adding the government can absorb increased import costs while continuing to sell fertiliser to farmers at existing subsidised prices. “Similarly, for oil, support for import at a higher price for fertilizer import, but yet give it to the farmers at the same price since COVID. So, all this, I have kept buffers which can take care of it,” she added.
The minister warned that India’s heavy dependence on crude imports means a sustained rise in international oil prices could widen the import bill and put pressure on inflation, the current account and the rupee. She also highlighted that inflationary pressures are not solely imported and that domestic weather risks matter: “Inflation, therefore, cannot be just imported, it’s also our own want of rain and the monsoon being less than normal, can also add to the inflation.”
Sitharaman pointed to El Niño as an additional risk that can alter rainfall patterns and strain irrigation and drinking-water supplies, noting that a below-normal or uneven monsoon could hurt crop output and push up food prices even if global commodity prices stay stable.
On the demand side, she said private-sector investment is showing signs of recovery, with firms investing in areas deemed important for India’s long-term and strategic priorities. “Industry has started investing, the numbers are improving. In fact, it’s very encouraging to know that they are investing in sectors which are very critical to India’s Atmanirbhar Viksit Bharat,” she said, inviting industry to engage with the government on policy or facilitation needs.
Earlier at the event, Sitharaman described India’s growth momentum as “broad-based and resilient despite external challenges,” citing GST collections, export orders, e-way bill generation, electricity demand, digital payments, and vehicle and tractor sales as indicators of sustained activity. While the government intends to stick with existing fiscal calculations for now, Sitharaman acknowledged that the outlook remains sensitive to the trajectory of crude oil prices, monsoon performance and the broader impact of geopolitical tensions on trade and commodity markets.
Original Source: https://www.firstpost.com/business/nirmala-sitharaman-budget-estimates-fiscal-buffers-oil-prices-monsoon-risks-14034053.html
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Publish Date: 2026-07-27 06:11:00
