Scientists have identified a blood-based signal that can predict the risk of developing lung cancer more than five years before diagnosis, a finding published in the journal Cell that could help shift detection earlier for one of India’s deadliest cancers. The study reports a 14-protein blood signature that, combined with clinical factors, predicted lung cancer risk a median of 5.6 years before diagnosis, potentially allowing earlier monitoring, targeted screening and preventive measures for people at higher risk.
The results are particularly relevant to India, where lung cancer cases were estimated at about 63,700 in 2015 and projected to exceed 81,000 by 2025, and where roughly 80–85% of patients are diagnosed at an advanced stage. Earlier identification of individuals at elevated risk could help reduce late-stage presentations and improve outcomes.
Dr Abhishek Shankar, a radiation oncologist at AIIMS Delhi, cautioned that the test should be seen as a risk-assessment tool rather than a direct screening test. “The blood-based protein signature does not detect a tumour but identifies people at higher risk of developing lung cancer in future. Such people can then undergo more definitive screening,” he said, adding that the signature will need validation in Indian populations before widespread use.
The research team analysed blood samples and health data from more than 48,000 participants in the UK Biobank. They found that combining the 14 proteins with age, smoking history and chronic lung disease predicted future lung cancer risk more accurately than existing models based on clinical factors alone.
The findings were validated in eight international cohorts involving over 2,000 lung cancer cases. Importantly, the protein signature was elevated not only in smokers but also in people exposed to particulate air pollution — a key concern for India — suggesting the test may pick up risk from multiple environmental and lifestyle sources.
Mechanistically, the study suggests that air pollution, cancer-causing mutations and inflammation driven by the immune molecule IL-1β may converge on pathways that promote tumour formation, offering new insight into how lung cancer develops years before a tumour is clinically detectable.
While further validation and population-specific studies are needed before routine clinical use, researchers say blood-based risk assessment tools like this could complement existing screening programmes, enable earlier detection through targeted follow-up, and eventually guide preventive interventions for high-risk groups.
Original Source: https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/blood-test-can-predict-lung-cancer-5-years-before-diagnosis/articleshow/131541653.cms
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Publish Date: 2026-06-06 03:40:00
