In an era where global populations are increasingly ageing and fertility rates are declining, the latest State of World Population report by the UN sexual and reproductive rights agency (UNFPA) highlights a pressing concern: about one in five adults worldwide believe they cannot achieve their desired family size. This sentiment stems largely from economic insecurity, inequality, and insufficient support. Nevertheless, Michael Herrmann, an economist and demographer at UNFPA, urges against alarmist reactions, stating, “Demographic change is not a crisis in itself. It’s a reality we need to understand, plan for, and adapt to.”
Herrmann recently discussed the notion of “demographic resilience” at the Commission on Population and Development at UN Headquarters in New York. This concept encourages societies to anticipate shifts in their population dynamics and modify institutions accordingly to better harness human potential. It applies both to developing and affluent nations, irrespective of whether their populations are expanding, contracting, or ageing. Countries can benefit from a “demographic dividend” by capitalizing on a growing working-age population, while those further along the demographic transition may find advantages in investing in education, healthcare, and skills to enhance productivity.
One significant challenge posed by ageing populations is a dwindling workforce. While many governments respond by raising retirement ages, Herrmann argues that such measures often overlook the diverse capacities and life circumstances of older adults. He advocates for more flexible working options that allow older individuals to remain engaged in less demanding roles, alleviating the financial pressures on pension systems.
As birth rates decline, some governments resort to offering cash bonuses and tax incentives to encourage larger families. However, Herrmann suggests these short-term strategies often fail to create lasting change. “One-off payments don’t change long-term decisions,” he explains, noting that while they might affect the timing of childbearing, they rarely influence people’s ultimate choices about family size. A new initiative, UNFPA’s Youth Reproductive Choices Survey, is currently underway in 70 nations, focusing directly on why people are having fewer children than they desire. Preliminary findings indicate economic pressures, such as high housing costs and job insecurity, along with societal issues like unequal gender roles, where women shoulder the bulk of unpaid care.
Policies stemming from fears of population decline can sometimes infringe on rights, particularly for women. Fertility targets and imposed regulations often come with detrimental assumptions, such as promoting traditional gender roles or restricting access to reproductive healthcare. A rights-based approach emphasizes understanding the barriers preventing individuals from having the families they desire and focuses on practical solutions like affordable housing, accessible childcare, and parental leave for all parents.
While ageing populations bring notable challenges-especially for pension systems and healthcare-they do not necessarily predict economic downfall. Investment in health and long-term care can generate jobs and economic activity within local communities. Moreover, older individuals often contribute in ways beyond the workforce, such as through caregiving and community volunteering.
Migration is another influential demographic factor. While high birth rates are a concern for some nations, emigration plays a crucial role in population decline in others. Regions like the Western Balkans have seen major population drops due to emigration, while countries like Germany have offset declines through inward migration. However, Herrmann warns that simply increasing migration won’t be a quick fix; without proper integration measures, many migrants remain marginalized, impacting both newcomers and host communities negatively.
Ultimately, Herrmann’s vision for demographic resilience is carved from the principle of listening. If many people desire larger families but are limited by circumstances, the answer lies not in coercion, but in developing supportive policies that enhance individual choices. By addressing the realities that families face, societies can manage demographic changes positively, fostering an environment that is fair and forward-thinking.
Original Source: https://news.un.org/feed/view/en/story/2026/04/1167315
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Publish Date: 2026-04-18 17:30:00
