Traders on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) are facing a cautious outlook as stock futures turned lower on Monday evening, primarily driven by ongoing tensions between Israel and Iran. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dipped 85 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures both fell by 0.2% and nearly 0.3%, respectively.
Despite these declines, the major stock averages ended the regular trading session on a high note, with the Dow gaining more than 300 points, the S&P 500 rising by approximately 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite soaring 1.5%. Investor confidence was bolstered by decreasing oil prices, as Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate crude settled down by over 1%. This marked a reversal from the previous Friday’s surge in oil prices, which followed Israel’s airstrikes against Iran.
On the geopolitical front, the conflict has stretched into a fourth day. Reports indicate that Iran has urged several nations, including Saudi Arabia and Qatar, to encourage U.S. President Donald Trump to exert pressure on Israel for a ceasefire. A Middle East diplomat informed NBC News that Iran is willing to discuss flexibility on nuclear negotiations in exchange for a cessation of hostilities.
Later in the evening, President Trump took to Truth Social, urging that “everyone should immediately evacuate Tehran,” a statement that influenced U.S. stock futures to dip slightly. Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist at LPL Financial, noted that Israel’s immediate goal is to eliminate the Iranian nuclear threat, while the longer-term objective is more complex-potentially involving regime change in Iran.
Buchbinder also provided insights into market behavior during geopolitical crises, referencing an analysis of 25 major events since the Pearl Harbor attack in 1941. He noted that stocks tend to show resilience, with average drawdowns of about 4.6% over approximately 19 days during such conflicts. Although recoveries to pre-event levels generally take longer, averaging about 40 days, the interruptions are usually confined to a few weeks or a couple of months.
As investors focus on economic indicators, Tuesday will bring May’s retail sales data, which will be closely monitored. The focal point for the week, however, is the Federal Reserve’s upcoming rate policy decision set for Wednesday afternoon. Current trading data from CME FedWatch suggests a strong likelihood that the Fed will maintain its rates within the existing target range of 4.25% to 4.50%.
In summary, while tensions in the Middle East create a volatile backdrop, market indicators suggest a cautious optimism as investors brace for crucial economic updates and central bank decisions in the upcoming days.
Original Source: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/16/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
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Publish Date: 2025-06-17 04:38:00
