Exclusive Insight: Delhi University Researchers Unveil Bold Predictions on Kamala Harris’s Popular Vote Share Ahead of US Presidential Election
As the 2024 U.S. presidential election approaches, researchers from the Faculty of Management Studies at the University of Delhi have forecasted a popular vote advantage for incumbent Democratic candidate Kamala Harris. Utilizing a comprehensive suite of machine learning algorithms, the study predicts Harris’s vote share at 47.04%.
The research, conducted by Professors Pankaj Sinha, Amit Kumar, Sumana Biswas, and Chirag Gupta, integrates economic and social indicators with advanced machine learning techniques to project electoral outcomes. Key variables influencing voter behavior include Gallup approval ratings (June and average), scandal ratings, unemployment rate, oil prices, and crime rates.
To process these variables, the researchers deployed three machine learning models: Lasso, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting, each offering distinct predictive capabilities. The Lasso model, notable for curbing overfitting by minimizing less relevant variables, emerged as the most consistent predictor. It was able to deliver reliable forecasts, maintaining low prediction error rates when backtested against the 2012, 2016, and 2020 election data.
In contrast, while the Random Forest and Gradient Boosting models demonstrated high accuracy on the training dataset, they struggled with consistency due to overfitting on limited data samples. This highlights the strength of the Lasso model in delivering dependable predictions for complex datasets.
The study underscores the critical importance of predictive accuracy in geopolitical and economic forecasting. The researchers at FMS emphasize that their model serves as a valuable tool for political strategists and economic analysts globally, providing insightful data that can inform strategic decision-making.
This research combines academic rigor with innovative technology, offering a sophisticated glimpse into the electoral landscape as the 2024 U.S. presidential election draws nearer.
Original Story https://www.indiatodayne.in/national/story/delhi-university-researchers-predict-popular-vote-share-for-kamala-harris-ahead-of-us-presidential-polls-1116023-2024-11-05?utm_source=rssfeed
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Publish Date: 2024-11-05 12:00:00
