$28 Million Gamble: French Trader’s Bold Bet on Trump Victory Shocks the Market with 4 Polymarket Accounts
In the 2024 presidential election betting landscape, a significant shift towards former President Donald Trump has sparked scrutiny. On Polymarket, a political gambling platform, four accounts have collectively wagered over $28 million on Trump’s victory. Polymarket has confirmed that these accounts are managed by a single trader, a French national with extensive trading experience. Funded via the U.S.-based crypto exchange Kraken, the trader’s actions have raised suspicions, but investigations by third-party experts, in partnership with Nardello & Company, found no evidence of market manipulation.
Despite this, Trump’s supporters have pointed to the favorable betting odds as a sign of his rising support against Democratic contender Vice President Kamala Harris. This perceived trend contrasts with national polls indicating a tight race. Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk also weighed in, suggesting that betting markets, where real money is involved, are more reliable than opinion polls.
Polymarket clarified that prediction markets gauge the probability of an event, not voter intentions, emphasizing a fundamental misunderstanding about their function. Currently, the top accounts on Polymarket placed Trump’s odds considerably ahead, betting over $7 million on his popular vote win against Harris.
Underlining regulatory challenges, Polymarket remains inaccessible to U.S. traders following a settlement with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. Meanwhile, Kalshi, another betting platform, and Interactive Brokers, have introduced new political betting contracts amid ongoing legal disputes with regulators like the CFTC over the legitimacy of such bets.
As both traditional and betting market metrics offer differing forecasts, the role of political gambling in shaping election narratives continues to rise.
Original Story https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/24/polymarket-trump-french-election-bet.html
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