Oil prices rose again on Monday after a fresh round of strikes between the United States and Iran raised fears over supply disruption in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz, a key shipping chokepoint for global oil flows. Traders said the attacks undercut hopes for a durable pause in the conflict and prompted a short-term tightening in markets, pushing benchmark prices higher.
The move up came after a recent sharp slide in crude that had erased much of the war-driven rally. Brent, the international benchmark, briefly dipped below $72 a barrel and was reported around $71.50 on June 26 as vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz improved and market worries over immediate shortages eased. U.S. futures also fell, reflecting a broader unwinding of the earlier risk premium.
Analysts say the market is now balancing two opposing forces: renewed military activity that can lift a risk premium, and growing signs of restored flows and ample stocks that push prices down. Shipping data and comments from market participants have suggested faster-than-expected return of Persian Gulf shipments, while strategic reserve releases and higher regional loadings have softened the squeeze that sent prices soaring earlier in the conflict. These cross-currents make prices volatile and sensitive to headlines.
For India, the price swing carries clear but mixed implications. Falling international crude eases inflationary pressure, shrinks the import bill and can improve the fiscal and current-account outlook-outcomes highlighted by economists as material for fiscal year 2026–27 if the decline sustains. At the same time, some market commentators and reports say India, which has built higher stocks since the conflict began, may be cautious about sharply increasing purchases of Iranian crude even if it becomes available, limiting any immediate uplift in Iranian exports to India.
In short, oil markets remain on a knife-edge: fresh hostilities can quickly lift prices by reviving supply fears, while improved shipping and inventory rebuilds can drag benchmarks back toward pre-war levels. For consumers and policymakers, the near-term outlook will depend on whether the ceasefire and shipping normalisation hold or whether clashes escalate and choke flows again.
Original Source: https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-climbs-following-renewed-us-iran-strikes-middle-east-2026-06-28/
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Publish Date: 2026-06-29 05:04:00
