Funds Make Bold Moves, Bearish Corn & Soy Bets Surge After Robust US Crop Forecast – A Must-Read Analysis by Braun
NERVILLE, Illinois — Speculators held a favorable position in Chicago grains and oilseeds last week, driven by record U.S. crop forecasts, and increased their bearish bets just as prices hit their lowest since 2020. As of Aug. 13, money managers expanded their net short in CBOT corn futures and options to 249,007 contracts from 242,545, marking an end to four weeks of short covering. This is the most bearish mid-August stance on corn, albeit lower than the all-time short of 353,983 contracts on July 9. More than 13,000 gross corn longs were added, the largest since May, indicating potential belief in near-term price stabilization.
In soybeans, money managers raised their net short to 174,447 futures and options contracts from 169,016, nearing the record short of 185,750 contracts from July 16. The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reported a 29% increase in domestic soybean ending stocks for 2024-25, reaching 560 million bushels due to higher acreage and a record yield. Meanwhile, U.S. corn ending stocks decreased by 1%, accommodated by reduced acres and increased demand, still marking a six-year high.
Corn and soybean prices fell 2% and 6.3%, respectively, during the week ending Aug. 13, with subsequent declines of 1.2% and 0.6%. December corn and November soybeans hit nearly four-year lows at $3.90 and $9.55 per bushel, respectively. CBOT soybean meal saw an 8.4% drop due to a record weekly selloff, reducing net longs to 779 contracts from 42,009. Concerns about Chinese demand have pressured global grain and oilseed prices.
Money managers held a notably pessimistic outlook on soybean oil, increasing their net short by about 1,000 contracts to 80,273, the second most bearish mid-August stance since 2018. December soybean oil and meal hit contract lows of 37.66 cents per pound and $298.50 per short ton, respectively, with prices at their lowest since late 2020. CBOT wheat dropped nearly 3% through Aug. 13, with the net short expanding to 73,288 contracts. Despite lower U.S. wheat production than expected, ending stocks are set to climb to four-year highs in 2024-25, although global prices may be supported by relatively low stocks among major exporters.
Original Story https://www.livemint.com/news/world/funds-tweak-bearish-corn-soy-bets-after-strong-us-crop-forecast-braun-11724014944514.html
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