New Delhi: Heavy Rains Anticipated Due to Low-Pressure System Over Bay of Bengal, Delayed Monsoon Withdrawal
From Sunday to Thursday, India is set to experience heavy rainfall, driven by a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal and the delayed withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, starting Monday from regions like west Rajasthan and Kachchh. Typically, the monsoon begins retreating from the extreme northwest India by September 17. However, consecutive weather systems this year have prolonged the monsoon into late September.
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced on Sunday that the formation of this low-pressure system over the west-central Bay of Bengal, combined with favorable conditions for monsoon withdrawal from parts of West Rajasthan and Kachchh starting September 23, will result in significant rainfall across south peninsular India from Sunday to Tuesday, and over central, East, and Northeast India from Monday to Thursday.
A delayed monsoon, particularly with prolonged heavy rains, poses a risk to maturing crops ready for October harvest and may delay the sowing of rabi crops. This year’s monsoon, despite a slow start, has delivered 5% above-average rainfall, aiding kharif crop sowing in August and countering last year’s low production. Yet, September’s excess rainfall threatens crops ahead of the harvest, potentially impacting inflation figures.
Data shows Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, and Gujarat among 12 states experiencing ‘excess’ rainfall (20-59% above the long-period average). Conversely, East and Northeast India remain 16% below their typical rainfall since June 1.
Adding complexity, La Niña, characterized by cooler sea surface temperatures and typically increasing rainfall, is expected to emerge later this month and persist until the end of 2024. Meanwhile, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another monsoon-influencing factor, is predicted to stay neutral through the 2024 monsoon season. La Niña, occurring every 3-5 years, often brings heightened rainfall and can result in floods, impacting weather patterns significantly.
The IMD urges readiness for heavy rains and monitoring of weather updates to mitigate agricultural and economic impacts.
Original Story https://www.livemint.com/news/india/imd-floods-heavy-rain-rajasthan-kachchh-monsoon-withdrawal-la-nina-bay-of-bengal-rabi-kharif-crops-11727004394964.html
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